Warm Mid-latitude Oceans Bias Climate Warm
09/25/2023, 2:46 pm EDT
Strong Bias/Error by GFS Recent South America Temperature Forecasts
09/27/2023, 8:06 am EDT
Highlight: Keeping the Gulf of Mexico ALL CLEAR for now.
Fig. 1: North Atlantic basin satellite view and prominent tropical features.
Discussion: Tropical Storm Phillippe is drifting toward a shear axis likely to limit additional development (Fig. 1). NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track turns Phillippe westward and weaker. Tropical Disturbance 91L in the east-central tropics is forecast to become a tropical storm late this week and possibly a hurricane by early weekend drifting west-northwestward. In the 6-10-day period, this system is likely to turn north and stay out to sea. The 2023 season so far is more active than normal and likely near the consensus of seasonal forecasts (Fig. 2). In October, climatology favors the northwest Caribbean Sea, Florida, and east of Florida for late season tropical activity (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2: North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity so far compared to normal and the consensus of seasonal forecasts.
Fig. 3: Tropical cyclone activity climatology for October.