U.S. and Europe Weather Critical…Mega-cluster Ensemble “Most Likely” Scenarios Second Half of June

Highlight: U.S. and Europe Weather Critical…Mega-cluster Ensemble “Most Likely” Scenarios Second Half of June

Fig. 1-3: The “most likely” temperature anomaly scenarios for days 1-15 across the U.S.

Fig. 4-6: The “most likely” percent of normal precipitation scenarios for days 1-15 across the U.S.

U.S. Discussion: Thematic with the mega-cluster ensemble is near complete bias toward ECM which is the hotter of all models. The outlook emphasizes persistent anomalous heat for the Central and Southeast U.S. the second half of June although backing off slightly in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 1-3). The precipitation scheme favors mostly dry weather for the U.S. Corn Belt, particularly the eastern stretch (Fig. 4-6). Dryness dominates the Delta region as well.

Fig. 7-9: The “most likely” temperature anomaly scenarios for days 1-15 across Europe into Western Russia.

Fig. 10-12: The “most likely” percent of normal precipitation scenarios for days 1-15 across Europe into Western Russia.

Europe discussion: Similar to the U.S. forecast, the mega-cluster ensemble is biased toward ECM solutions which are hotter than GFS. The temperature anomaly outlook identifies hot weather across Southwest Europe into the weekend followed by a shift of the anomalous heat to Southeast Europe days 6-10 and a more temperate regime for days 11-15 (Fig. 7-9). The precipitation outlook indicates some beneficial rainfall risk for Spain and France and northeastward by days 6-10 after more dry weather in the short-term while the extended-range focuses wet weather on Germany (Fig. 10-12). The dry bis shifts toward Southeast Europe.