A Double-Dip La Nina Ahead in 2025

Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA observations indicate La Nina is steady.

Discussion: The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society released a collection of Nino34 SSTA forecasts for 2025 earlier today. The consensus of dynamic (and especially) statistical Nino34 SSTA forecasts is a trend toward a “double dip” La Nina for later this year (Fig. 1). Previously, Climate Impact Company issued a Nino34 SSTA constructed analog forecast indicating a second La Nina later in 2025 somewhat more intense than the 2024-25 version (Fig. 2). The current La Nina weakens over the next 1-3 months and regenerates during the last 4 months of 2025. IRI also issued new probabilistic climate forecasts. High impact climate for summer 2025 in the U.S. and Europe includes a large drought risk for the Northwest and Central U.S. plus the Black Sea region (Fig. 3-4). Previously issued summer forecasts by Climate Impact Company also indicate widespread dry climate risk in the U.S. and Europe for upcoming summer (Fig. 5-6).

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog Nino34 SSTA forecast into early 2027.

Fig. 3-4: International Research Institute probabilistic forecast for summertime precipitation anomalies across North America and Europe. 

Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for summertime precipitation anomalies across North America and Europe.