July 2025 ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD Analog Forecasts
07/28/2025, 12:14 pm EDT
FINAL 2025 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season Activity Forecast
08/04/2025, 8:16 am EDT
Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Basin 10-Day Monitor
Issued: Thursday July 31, 2025, 8:30AM EDT
Highlight: Wind speed AI forecasts for August.
Fig. 1-3: Machine learning (AI 4Cast Net V2 GFS ENS) risk of above normal wind speeds possibly associated with tropical cyclone risk for mid-to-late August.
Discussion: A sophisticated analog system, the machine learning AI 4Cast Net V2 GFS ENS, projects above normal wind speed risk (at 100 meters) in the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas for middle August (Fig. 1-2) and across the Caribbean Sea for late August (Fig. 3). Implications for potential tropical cyclones are suggested by these forecasts. This forecast is TEST-3 of AI forecasts for verification on the CIC website.
Currently, the North Atlantic basin is remarkably quiet after a burst of ITCZ convection earlier this week (Fig. 4). However, the environment is improving as upper shear is minimal, Saharan Dust somewhat limited, and a slight warming trend of the ocean surface. Upper ocean heat in the main development region (MDR) increased to 3rd warmest on record earlier this month.
Fig. 4: North Atlantic basin weather satellite view.