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Climate Impact Company Daily Feature
Issued: Monday, May 5, 2025
Highlight: ECMWF “monthlies” project hot and dry summer for the Great Plains and Central Europe.
Fig. 1-2: ECM just released JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for the U.S.
Discussion: The just-released ECMWF “monthlies” identify potential hot/dry and wet climate patterns for summertime in the U.S. and Eurasia. In the U.S., the JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast yields a dry and hot regime over the Great Plains (Fig. 1-2). Implied is a significant drought west and north of the April/Early May heavy rain zone located from Texas to the Southern Ohio Valley. Conversely, the wet zone shifts into the East ending the Mid-Atlantic drought. Also note the dry and very warm climate expectation across the Canadian Prairies.
In Eurasia, similar with the U.S., a dry and anomalous hot zone is forecast to develop across Central Europe (Fig. 3-4). The dryness and anomalous heat risk is marginally indicated in the immediate Black Sea region. Clearly, the ECMWF forecast shifts drought risk to Europe for summer 2025 and de-emphasizes Southwest Russia/Black Sea.
Fig. 3-4: ECM just released JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for Europe and Russia.