Wet AUG/SEP 2022 Forecast for Tropical Africa Spells Trouble in the Main Development Region for Hurricanes!
04/25/2022, 7:28 am EDTCentral U.S. Summer Drought Forecast Fading as Pattern Turns Wetter
05/02/2022, 4:28 am EDT
Fig. 1: Just-received ECMWF 1-10-day percent of normal precipitation forecast.
Discussion: At 12Z, ECM and GFS project harsh weather for the Central/Midwest U.S. as both model(s) trend wetter and cooler. The just-received ECM indicates in their 10-day forecast several inches of rain in the central and northern Great Plains and up to 5-6 in. (or more) in far southeast Great Plains (Fig. 1). All areas except the far northwest states are struck by the wet weather. The rain arrives with cool weather which is enhanced by persistent cloudiness and precipitation in the 6-10-day period as GFS projects 5-day temperature anomalies of -15F from Omaha, NE to southwest Wisconsin and southern Minnesota (Fig. 2). The coolest anomalies are during the day due to lack of sunlight. Beyond 10 days will be addressed by the latest week 2-4 outlook issued shortly.
Fig. 2: The GFS 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecast.