Argentina Dryness to Continue as Soil Conditions Deteriorate
01/14/2025, 5:57 am EST
Charts of the day: ERCOT chill and <0F risk for next week.
Discussion: High focus on ERCOT (and everywhere else) for next week’s arctic outbreak. In Texas, the outbreak lasts January 19-24 and peaks on January 21. Texas will add snow and ice storm concern during that time. Note the ECM ENS 6-10-day forecast of <0F risk!
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid January 20-24, 2025 (24-hour change)
Discussion: Deep cold remains in the 6-10-day forecast with increased snow cover to enhance the cold therefore widespread 24-hour colder changes to the outlook.
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid January 25-29, 2025 (24-hour change)
Discussion: The cold in the South and Southeast is abating but less quickly than previously indicated. Additional snowfall is possible in these areas well away from the coast. New cold is strengthening across the northwest Great Plains enhanced by significant snowfall.
U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast
Discussion: A major storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico and extends across Florida in the 6-10-day period. Despite the far southern latitude, available cold likely causes snow, sleet, and ice away from the coast. More snow is likely in the 11-15-day period from Arkansas to Virginia.
Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid January 30-February 3, 2025
Discussion: Once into February, the East/Southeast begins to re-warm. Cold weather retreats to home base in Western Canada.