North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Season Scorecard

Discussion: We’re entering the most active part of the tropical cyclone season (Aug. 10-Oct. 20) with a North Atlantic basin generally favorable for development. Currently, there are no significant tropical waves in the North Atlantic basin and the 2-week outlook is for limited (20%) risk of tropical cyclone development in the central North Atlantic tropics. Therefore, we may have to wait until about August 25^th for activity to begin rolling. Meanwhile, macroscale factors identifying tropical cyclone risk include a VERY supportive record warm North Atlantic tropics and subtropics and generally light shear. The record warm ocean surface lasts through the tropical cyclone season. However, increased upper-level westerly shear inhibiting tropical cyclone activity due to an evolving El Nino climate is due by October 1^st suggesting late season activity is diminishing rapidly. Tropical waves moving off West Africa should increase intensity as that zone becomes more consistently wetter than normal beginning September 1^st. Forecast factors suggest the bulk of this year’s activity occurs in a 7-week period from late August to early October. Most of the tropical cyclone activity projected for 2023 (by NOAA, CSU, TSR, and CIC) should occur during this time.