North America Prevailing Upper Air Forecast for Summer, Autumn and Next Winter

Discussion: Today is climate forecast day for North America. Climate Impact Company issues the season 1-3 ahead climate forecast valid through next winter. The upper air projection has been calculated and presented in this document. NOAA/CPC U.S. long-lead climate forecasts are also issued today and a summary of results will be sent along once data is collected.

The summer 2022 upper air pattern across North America projects a high-pressure ridge promoting hot and dry climate across the West to North-central U.S. (Fig. 1). The ridge is located farther south during early summer and pushed northward by the summertime (wet) monsoon regime. The wet summertime monsoon regime is related to low-pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea where tropical cyclone generation is likely above normal. As previously indicated in the Climate Impact Company North Atlantic Hurricane Outlook, the best environment for tropical cyclones to flourish during the 2022 season is once systems have departed the deep tropics and approach or enter the subtropics. High-pressure across Nova Scotia indicates presence a tropical cyclone steering currents toward the U.S. East Coast for later in summer.

The autumn upper air projection shifts the upper ridge pattern to the Central U.S. where late warm season drought is likely (Fig. 2). Low pressure is forecast on the U.S. East Coast suggesting presence of late season tropical cyclones.

Next winter the polar vortex returns and anchors over Central/East Canada causing a cold winter risk there with occasional cold outbreaks into the U.S. (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog projection of the summer 2022 upper air pattern across North America.

Fig. 2: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog projection of the autumn 2022 upper air pattern across North America.

Fig. 3: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog projection of the winter 2022-23 upper air pattern across North America.