Main Development Region for North Atlantic hurricanes cools at rapid pace in May!
06/10/2021, 1:31 pm EDTVery Warm Waters Ahead of 92L in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
06/16/2021, 10:32 am EDTDiscussion: A string of record hot days will occur in California and across the Southwest U.S. this week. Beginning in Phoenix, ensembles indicate maximum temperature in the 117-119F range for MON-FRI. Record maximum for each day is in the 114-115F range. Shifting to Fresno, CA ensembles indicate maximum temperature of 109-111F for THU/FRI later this week. Record maximum temperature for each day is in the 107-109F range. In Burbank, CA the super-heat is just inland and most of the week stays in the 92-98F range (normal is 80F). Farther to the north, Redding, CA can expect 105-114F beginning Wednesday peaking on THU/FRI. Record maximum temperatures are in the 108-110F range.
Other extreme heat targets include eastern Montana on Tuesday. Glasgow, MT should reach 104F edging-out the all-time record of 102F. Southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas produce record 102F Wednesday. Wichita, KS challenges an all-time record of 104F on Thursday. By June 21-22, western Texas surges to 108-113F according to ECM.
Based on the GFS, tracking the heat wave core and migration areas beginning Tuesday for this week (Fig. 1-4) plus the searing heat for western Texas June 21st by ECM (Fig. 5) are indicated:
Fig. 1: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Tuesday.
Fig. 2: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Wednesday.
Fig. 3: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Thursday.
Fig. 4: GFS maximum temperature forecasts for Friday.
Fig. 5: ECM maximum temperature forecasts for June 21.