Negative Arctic Oscillation Produces Cold-to-Frigid Weather Most of Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere
01/14/2026, 5:06 am EST
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Australia
Issued: Friday, January 16, 2026
Highlight: MJO in control of the outlook; Drier/hotter East.
Chart of the day: Progressive Madden Julian oscillation.
Discussion: The ECM 30-day Madden Julian oscillation forecast indicates a phase_6 to phase_7 shift with intensity the second half of January followed by a phase_8 to phase_1 shift the first half of February. The phase_8 to phase_1 shift is eastward through the longitudes of the Americas and represents a hot and dry correlation to Australia climate.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 25-February 1, 2026: East Australia shifts hotter/drier.
Discussion: East Australia is the target of anomalous heat and dryness to finish January. Some heavy rain is possible on the south-central coast.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 1-8, 2026: Continue heat and dryness in the East.
Discussion: The MJO eastward shift maintains a hot and dry scenario for East Australia during early February.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 8-15, 2026: Not as hot.
Discussion: The dry/hot (MJO) influence breaks down, and the outlook trend is less hot and wetter.