Indian Ocean Dipole Update: Strong negative phase ahead!

Highlight: More wet climate ahead in 2022 for Australia as strong negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is ahead!

Fig. 1-3: GFS morning low temperature forecast for Thursday.

Discussion: The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is projecting an intense negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) to evolve during early winter and peak in intensity during quarter 3 of 2022 (Fig. 1). The -IOD pattern will sustain the La Nina-inspired persistent upper-level low-pressure trough pattern over Southeast Australia which has caused many excessive rainfall events. According to the NCEP CFS V2 last 20 cycles, this time the -IOD-inspired upper-level low-pressure trough will be elongated across all of Southern Australia (Fig. 2-3) supporting a wet to very wet climate pattern from northwestern to eastern continent for the winter and spring season ahead.