Upper Air Pattern Forecast Favors Above Normal Risk of Important Cold Reaching Brazil Mid-to-late Winter
06/28/2025, 3:57 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company AG Hot Spot
Issued: Sunday June 29, 2025
Highlight: Heavy rain event New South Wales Coast; Cold air mass does not reach Brazil coffee areas.
Fig. 1-2: The ECM 1-5-day rainfall amount forecast and daily soil moisture analysis across Australia.
Discussion: An intense low-pressure center, lowering to 982 MB by 1800 GMT on Tuesday, will force high wind and heavy rain on the New South Wales Coast this week. Several inches of rain are likely for much of the NSW coastal zone (Fig. 1). The low-pressure area propels a cool air mass into the northern continent this week. The daily soil moisture analysis across Australia indicates the wet soil conditions for eastern continent while the southern and western coast stay dry (Fig. 2).
In South America, a cold burst is forecast early-to-middle week (Fig. 3). The air mass is not expected to reach the Brazil coffee growing areas. The coldest morning is Tuesday (Fig. 4) while Wednesday morning is nearly as cold.
Fig. 3-4: The 1-5-day temperature anomaly forecast across ARG/BRZ and coldest morning of the week.