Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Ahead for Australia

Highlight: -IOD pattern ahead. Argentina wet days 6-10.

Fig. 1-2: The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting negative Indian Ocean Dipole developing during southern hemisphere winter. Typically, -IOD climate produces wetter than normal climate across west and south Australia.

-IOD ahead: The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting negative Indian Ocean Dipole to develop for JUL/AUG 2021 (Fig. 1). The event is weak and short-lived. -IOD climate pattern are associated with wet climate across western and southern Australia (Fig. 2). The general wetter-than-normal climate associated with La Nina during the past warm season may continue during the upcoming winter season due to the evolving -IOD pattern. Interestingly, the 3 of the last 4 -IOD patterns have developed during dissipating El Nino’s (2016, 2010 and 1998). Only 2014 produced an ENSO regime relatively similar to 2021. The winter of 2014 was not a spectacular climate across Australia as precipitation and temperature were near normal. If a La Nina climate were to continue a more likely wet scenario for winter would occur in Australia. Right now, ENSO is projected neutral for southern hemisphere winter.