Heavy Rain and Severe Storms Mid-south States WED/THU
01/27/2025, 5:52 am EST
AI Models Gaining Ground on Operational Models
01/30/2025, 5:44 am EST
Fig. 1: The 12-week Nino SSTA observations reveal a stronger La Nina.
Discussion: Last week, the Nino34 SSTA cooled to -0.9C which represents weak-to-moderate (oceanic) La Nina (Fig. 1). The Nino12 and Nino3 SSTA regions, located in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, are in neutral phase. The upper ocean heat anomalies roared cool in late December and remain the coolest signature of the cool period from the past 12 months (Fig. 2). Subsurface cooling in the eastern equatorial subsurface is vividly evident centered at 50-150-meter depth east of the Dateline and ample (cool water) supply to sustain La Nina (Fig. 3). Note the anomalous warmth to the west of the Dateline where Kelvin Wave is forming. The latest Nino34 SSTA forecasts from the CFS V2 model confidently project moderate La Nina to finish northern hemisphere meteorological winter followed by weakening to neutral ENSO mid-year (Fig. 4). The latest 8 ensemble members of CFS V2 forecast indicate a wide variety of ENSO phase possibilities by OCT-25 which identifies a low confidence projection.
Fig. 2: The 12-month upper ocean heat anomalies east of the Dateline.
Fig. 3: The upper ocean heat anomalies across the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Fig. 4: The latest Nino34 SSTA forecast utilizing the CFS V2 model.