NOAA/NHC: Rafael Likely to Avoid U.S. Coast

Fig. 1: NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Rafael.

Discussion: At 8AM EST, Hurricane Rafael was located at 24.3N/84.9W or about 180 miles west-northwest of Havana, Cuba. The maximum sustained wind is 105 mph. Rafael is moving northwest at 9 mph. Central pressure is 970 MB.

Rafael will turn westward over the next several days as a high-pressure area over the Florida Panhandle extends westward, albeit weakly to guide Rafael. By late weekend/early next week, high-pressure builds to the west of the storm providing a steering current that pushes Rafael toward Mexico. Although Rafael is over warm water and the upper shear may decrease during the central Gulf trek, dry air off the continent entrained into the tropical cyclone likely causes weakening.  The threat to the U.S. by Rafael continues to lower.

Fig. 2: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.