Super Warm SSTA Forecasts for Middle of 2023

Fig: 1: Global SSTA forecast for July 2023 by the International Multi-Model Ensemble.

Discussion: Most global SSTA forecasts reveal El Nino for the northern hemisphere summer of 2023 plus widespread marine heat waves in the mid-latitude oceans (Fig. 1). If so, 2023 is likely the warmest year on record, a common occurrence during the past 10-15 years. The warm SSTA forecast is reflected in global temperature probability forecasts for JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University. The forecast produces widespread hotter than normal risk centered on the Interior West of the U.S., North Africa to the Black Sea region, and South-central Asia (Fig. 2). Last July, La Nina was in-place. However, mid-latitude marine heat waves were dominant especially in the North Pacific, off the Northeast U.S. Coast, and surrounding Europe (Fig. 3). Last year, the warm season climate produced historic heat in Western Canada, the Central U.S., Europe, and China (Fig. 4). All the heat waves were produced by anomalous high-pressure ridging related to the warm SSTA pattern. Northern hemisphere summer of 2023 is likely to produce more large areas of dangerous heat with preliminary forecast targets the Interior West U.S. and Black Sea region.

Fig: 2: The JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 temperature probability forecast by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

Fig: 3: Last July global SSTA analysis.

Fig: 4: Summer of 2022 northern hemisphere temperature anomalies.