Excessive Rains Continue Southeast Brazil

Fig. 1-2: The recent excessive rain/flooding episode areas located in Southeast Brazil and the Middle East.

Discussion: According to Reuters, the death toll in Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state has reached 143 with 125 unaccounted for. Many hundreds of thousands of residents have relocated due to the ongoing flood. The heavy rain event began in late April. The focus of the heavy rain zone is across all Southeast Brazil touching Eastern Pakistan and Northern Uruguay (Fig. 1). Meanwhile, heavy to extreme rain present for the last 2 months in parts of the Middle East has expanded. Over the past day, Afghanistan floods have killed 315 and devastated villages of western parts of the nation (Fig. 2). Elsewhere, West Sumatra received extreme rainfall the past few days causing 28 deaths.

In Southeast Brazil, the 15-day forecast is unrelenting as more excessive rain is indicated. GFS projects >10 in. of rain during the next 15 days in Southeast Brazil (Fig. 3). The Black Sea region has received a large set of extreme weather during springtime. Record warmth was observed in April followed by recent freeze events. Lates 15-day forecasts indicate some of the Middle East rains could shift north into the Black Sea region and Southwest Russia in the latest 15-day outlook (Fig. 4). The Southeast Asia drought certainly appears in reversal as 15-day forecasts are soaking wet (Fig. 5).

Fig. 3-5: The GFS wet weather forecasts for Southeast Brazil, Black Sea region, and Southeast Asia over the next 15 days.