Frost Risk for Southern Brazil Coffee

Highlight: Frost risk for Southern Brazil coffee-growing areas.

Discussion: The southern extent of the coffee growing areas in Southern Brazil extend to the central portion of Parana. Beginning Saturday and repeating Tuesday, each morning presents a risk of frost. The least aggressive forecast is Saturday when only the GFS indicates risk of <32F/0C across Southern Parana likely just south of the coffee growing area (Fig. 1). Next Tuesday the GFS and ECM are agreeable to a frost risk. The GFS has the <32F/0C risk mostly in Santa Caterina, to the south of the coffee growing areas (Fig. 2). However, ECM has a stronger <32F/0C risk with wider aerial coverage on Tuesday morning stretching from Southern Parana to Northern Rio Grande do Sol (Fig. 3). The northern extent of the cold risk just touches the far southern coffee crop area in Parana. In summary, nearby frost risk for Saturday and Tuesday for Parana coffee areas should stay just south and prevent damage from a mid-August frost.

Fig. 1: GFS indicates risk of <32F/0C very close to the southern coffee growing areas in Parana on Saturday morning, August 10^th.

Fig. 2: GFS indicates risk of <32F/0C south of the southern coffee growing areas in Parana on Tuesday morning, August 13^th.

Fig. 3: ECM indicates risk of <32F/0C near the southern coffee growing areas in Parana on Tuesday morning, August 13^th.