Brazil Heat and Dryness Accelerate Drought

Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT

Issued: Monday September 29, 2025

Highlight: Brazil heat and dryness accelerate drought, East/South U.S. drought worsens, and wet weather is welcome in Southeast Europe.

Discussion: The 15-day temperature and precipitation outlook across Brazil reflects the influence of a torrid drought on climate. Centered over the Brazil drought area, the ECM ENS forecasts extreme heat for much of the next 15 days (Fig. 1) while the rainfall forecast continues to shift into the arid category (Fig. 2). Wet weather is well west and north of the Brazil drought area (Fig. 3) and stretched across Paraguay to far Southeast Brazil. Climate forecasts convey wet risk in Brazil for Q4/2025 beginning later in October as suggested by the ECM week 4-6 outlook (Fig. 4).

Meanwhile, the East U.S. has similar issues. Late summer drought has widened, and the latest 15-day ECM ENS percent of normal rainfall forecast is very dry from Texas to the Mid-south States and northeastward through the Ohio Valley to Quebec (Fig. 5). In Europe, the area needing rainfall due to torrid drought is Southeast Europe to the Black Sea region which is the beneficiary of an incoming upper trough that spawns a wet pattern that could last 1-2 weeks (Fig. 6).

Charts of the Day

Fig. 1-4: The ECM ENS 15-day temperature and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Brazil plus the daily GRACE-based shallow groundwater analysis and week 4-6 rainfall anomalies.

Fig. 5-6: ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for the U.S. AG Belt and AIFS ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast for Europe and Western Russia.