Stratospheric Warming Event for Middle February Risk Increasing
01/29/2025, 11:46 am EST
Charts of the day: ECM ENS projection of less than 18F risk.
Discussion: Europe/Western Russia has enjoyed a mostly warmer than normal winter so far. However, a cold air mass develops east of the Black Sea region and is forecast to back westward and produce cold air across bare ground in key agriculture areas of Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and East/Southeast Europe.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid February 9-15, 2025: Important cold backs into bare ground areas of Southwest Russia.
Discussion: The RRR pattern continues. However, operational models develop some cold weather east of the Black Sea region. The CFS V2 is agreeable to this scenario and used for the week 2-4 outlook. Notice that widespread dryness across the drought-concern area continues.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 16-22, 2025: The cold eases slightly; Most of Europe stays dry.
Discussion: The cold risk remains although slightly diminished in the Black Sea region. Europe shifts warmer than the previous week while widespread dryness persists.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid February 23-March 2, 2025: Sprawling dryness continues.
Discussion: The dry/mild Europe pattern regenerates while the chilly weather in the Black Sea region retreats eastward.