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Climate Impact Company Midday Update
Issued: Friday July 11, 2025
Headline: 12Z GFS much cooler Midwest to Northeast in medium range.
Fig. 1-4: The 12Z GFS midday medium range forecast and 24-hour change.
Discussion: Prohibitive cooler changes are indicated by the 12Z GFS in the Upper Midwest to Quebec in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 1-2) followed by much stronger cooler changes from the Midwest to the Northeast Corridor in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 3-4). The July 18-24 CDD are adjusted much cooler. Climate signal support is weak (except for MJO phase). AI models have been maintaining the cooler trend.
| EIA End | Forecast | 12-Hour Change | 24-Hour Change | 30-Year Normal | 10-Year Normal |
| 7/17 | 93.2 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 81.1 | 88.0 |
| 7/24 | 81.6 | -12.7 | -21.0 | 81.9 | 88.9 |
| 7/31 | 87.5 | -1.9 | -2.3 | 80.8 | 87.9 |
Table 1: The midday 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD projections into late July.