To Date, U.S. Summer 2023 Not That Hot

Tropical Disturbance 91L Becomes Weak Tropical Storm – Last Minute – Before Moving Inland South Texas Tomorrow
08/21/2023, 8:38 am EDT
Dry Concerns Increase Great Plains/Eastern Europe; Indian Wet Monsoon to Reactivate
08/25/2023, 9:29 am EDT
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Highlight: To date, U.S. summer 2023 not that hot! Gulf TC early next week.

Fig. 1-3: Meteorological summer 2023 (so far) temperature anomalies, the JUN/JUL/AUG 2020-22 temperature anomalies, and U.S. selected cities percent of normal 30-year CDD totals for the 2023 warm season vs. past 3 years.

Discussion: Natural gas is used to help generate a considerable amount of electricity in the U.S. to help sustain air conditioning for our hot summers. Sometimes all you have to do to verify a summer climate regime is look at natural gas prices. They’ve been low, about $2.30 to $3.00 the past several months. Why? In-part because despite historical heatwaves striking Texas, the Southeast, California, and now the Midwest U.S., the remainder of summer has not featured hot weather and high electricity demand areas in the East U.S. have avoided long-term heat extremes. Looking at meteorological summer so far, temperate weather (on average) visited the East while the West has mostly been cool. Of course, Texas and vicinity is scorching hot (Fig. 1). When you compare summer 2023 (so far) with a composite of the past 3 summer seasons (Fig. 2), the cooling degree days for MAY-SEP and JUN/JUL/AUG 2023 are much cooler (Fig. 3). Of course, meteorological summer goes out with a bang with historical heat pouncing on the Midwest/Mid-south U.S. as Excessive Heat Warnings roll on (Fig. 4) through Friday in the Midwest and late weekend farther to the south.

Fig. 4: Current NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.