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Climate Impact Company Week 2-to-4 South America Outlook
Issued: Wednesday May 7, 2025
Headline: Drier Brazil; No early season cold risk (for now).
Charts of the day: Effects of the cooling Nino12 SSTA region on Brazil rainfall.
Discussion: During mid-February to mid-April, the Nino12 SSTA region warmed to an unexpected +1C to +2C. During the 2-month period, the warm waters in this region contributed to a wet climate bias favoring northwest South America and eastward into North-central Brazil. The Nino12 SSTA region has cooled significantly during recent weeks to near normal. The wet pattern centered on northwest continent during the warm Nino12 regime, shifted eastward across most of Brazil during the past 3 weeks providing some wet relief to a large drought area. To compensate for the wet Brazil pattern during mid-April to early May, Northern Argentina was somewhat drier. The heat release from the cooling Nino12 region and the effect on Brazil rains ends as the 10-day forecast across Brazil is much drier.
Week-2 Valid May 18-24, 2025: Very warm and dry Southern Brazil.
Discussion: ECM continually biases the southern portion of Brazil hotter than normal due to the influence of dry soils on the forecast model. This warm zone is also dry during the week. Dryness extends to Argentina beneath the subtropical ridge.
Week-3 Valid May 25-31, 2025: Wetter North-central Brazil.
Discussion: Weak low pressure supports some wet weather across North-central Brazil while Southern Brazil stays mostly very warm and dry.
Week-4 Valid June 1-7, 2025: No early winter cold risk (for now).
Discussion: Dryness is dominant for much of Brazil and Argentina into early June with no early winter cold risk (for now).