Chart of the day: Europe Drought Monitor.
Discussion: The Europe Drought Monitor identifies a strong Northwest Africa drought having a northeastward extension to East Spain and Italy. There is some short-term rain in Morocco, otherwise the dry and very warm pattern is likely to regenerate.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid February 18-24, 2024: Arctic air in Russia while Europe is mild.
Discussion: Upper trough west-southwest of Europe is farther offshore, according to GFS and enables a warm/dry upper ridge to crest over Northwest Africa. Consequently, the Northwest Africa drought continues to strengthen and advance into Southwest Europe.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid February 25-March 2, 2024: Western Europe rains miss Northwest Africa.
Discussion: Upper trough is near the West Coast of Europe promising wet weather for Spain, France, and U.K. However, most of the rain misses Northwest Africa. A very warm pattern extends from Northwest Africa to the Black Sea region.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid March 3-9, 2024: Wet weather into the Black Sea region.
Discussion: ECM forecasts persistence keeping Western Europe wet while Northwest Africa is mostly dry and very warm.