South America update: Hostile 7 to 10 day forecast for Argentina.
Fig. 1-4: The GFS 14-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America.
Discussion: The 7-day forecast trend is drier across Argentina and consequently much hotter (Fig. 1-2). The Argentina drought is worsening rapidly. Conditions for flash drought are possible. In Brazil, the 7-day forecast trend is wetter especially on the East Coast where heavy rains cool the atmosphere to below normal for mid-summer. A strong tropical moisture fetch is apparent to the north. In the 8-14-day period there is the possibility that influence of the Madden Julian oscillation will increase at the Americas longitude. If so, the South America rainfall pattern is interrupted causing thundershowers to shift into Northern Argentina while Eastern Brazil turns drier. However, despite the thundershower risk in Argentina, the air mass remains hot (Fig. 3-4) and much of the drought area is unfazed by scattered convective rains.