New Arctic Air Mass But Not in North America

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Highlight: Early-to-middle January U.S. HDD forecast. New arctic air mass, but not in North America.

Fig. 1: U.S. population weight HDD forecast using all models, their consensus and comparing with 72 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year climatology.

Discussion: Remarkably, the U.S. gas population weight consensus of all models forecast remain similar too last Friday (Fig. 1). The current week is vigorously warm, especially in the East where heating demand is highest but very low this week due to unseasonably mild temperatures. Next week, U.S. heating demand increases but remains below normal national demand. The Jan. 13-19 forecast inches closer to the 10-year normal.

In the absence of arctic air, national heating demand will stay below normal. There is no arctic air in sight for North America. However, stratospheric warming taking place across Europe during the medium-range spawns vigorous cold centered on Northwest/North Russia (Fig. 2-3).

Fig. 2-3: GFS medium-range forecast for Europe/Russia identifies the birth and eastward shift of the latest northern hemisphere arctic air mass.