Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia Heat Alert!

Fig. 1-2: ECM ENS temperature anomaly and percent of normal 15-day forecasts for Europe and Russia.

Discussion: Hot weather extended across Western Russia early-to-middle of this week. Temperatures across Russia for 2024 so far are historically warm. Heatwave conditions are likely to continue. The area of focus is across Southwest Russia, the Black Sea region, and Southeast Europe (Fig. 1). A dry regime is included in this hot zone (Fig. 2). Drought worsens and fire risk increases dramatically. Western Europe is temperate and wet, and a wet regime is forecast for Kazakhstan.

Wet weather has developed across a large percentage of the China wheat-growing area during the past week, an area previously parched by dryness. The 15-day outlook indicates hot and dry risk is steady across East China while areas west and north of this hot weather zone are soaking wet (Fig. 3-4). The Northern China wheat-growing areas are drier/warmer (again).

In the U.S., heavy rain from Beryl occupies Texas into middle July while areas to the north shift drier for much of the U.S. Corn Belt (Fig. 5). Showery weather continues in Wisconsin. The outlook is cooler the next 10 days although the hotter weather reappears in the 11-15-day period (Fig. 6).

The South America 7-day temperature anomaly forecast identifies chilly weather across Argentina (Fig. 7) with risk of <32F into far Southeast Brazil into early next week. However, the primary Southeast Brazil issue is heavy rain over the next 1-2 weeks across the southern sugarcane zone in Brazil (Fig. 8).

Fig. 3-4: The ECM ENS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast.

Fig. 5-6: The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast across the U.S. AG Belt and 11-15-day temperature anomaly outlook.

Fig. 7-8: The ECM 1-7-day temperature anomaly forecast across Argentina and Brazil plus the 15-day GFS rainfall amount outlook.