12Z GFS: Simultaneous U.S./Europe Heatwaves Next Week
08/07/2025, 1:42 pm EDT
East U.S. Heat Breaks Later August But Should Regenerate in September
08/12/2025, 9:36 am EDT
Climate Impact Company Early AG Market ALERT
Issued: Monday August 11, 2025
Highlight: U.S. Corn Belt extremes; Europe is hot and dry.
Fig. 1-4: The GFS 1-5-day and 6-10-day rainfall forecast across the U.S. AG Belt plus the medium range temperature anomaly outlook by ECM and GFS.
Discussion: Heavy rains over the weekend shift to southward to Oklahoma to Missouri today (Fig. 1) and eastward from there mid-to-late week. After the wet weather, anomalous heat builds across the region. In the 6-10-day period, risk of additional heavy rain propelled by thunderstorms is indicated by GFS centered on Northeast Iowa (Fig. 2). The wet weather is accompanied by hot and humid conditions which are most pronounced by ECM in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 3). A cooler and drier regime follows in the 11-15-day period probably not as dramatically cool as GFS (Fig. 4).
The outlook across Europe trends hotter and drier from overnight (Fig. 5-6). The primary change is extending the heat and dryness through the 11-15-day period.
Fig. 5-6: The GFS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast across Europe and Western Russia.