Eastern Europe Heatwave Ahead

Highlight: Eastern Europe/Western Russia heatwave, U.S. AG Belt dryness, Brazil coffee frost, and extreme heat across Australia.

Fig. 1-2: AIFS 15-day temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast across Europe into Russia.

Discussion: AIFS projects an upper ridge developing along the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border this weekend and amplifying during the medium range. The sensible weather forecast projects very warm to hot weather beneath the ridge (Fig. 1). High temperatures reach 35C in Ukraine to Southwest Russia with 40C possible near and east of Caspian Sea into Kazakhstan. 35-40C threaten Southeast Europe. The upper ridge also produces widespread dryness from Romania to Northwest Russia accelerating drought already present in parts of this region (Fig. 2). The late summer rains across the Russia spring wheat areas budges eastward.

In the U.S. AG Belt, dryness is dominant through the next 7 days (Fig. 3) with a significant warm-up in 5-6 days. Wet trade winds push rains into the Southeast U.S. in the 8-14-day period (Fig. 4). At that time, the anomalous heat shifts from the Midwest to Northeast U.S. northward into East Canada while the Southern States cool to near normal. The Midwest States manage to stay dry at that time. Late season dryness across U.S. crop areas is increasing.

The last freeze/frost risk of the season to the Southern Brazil coffee growing areas remains in the forecast most aggressively indicated by ECM centered on next Monday morning (Fig. 5). Meanwhile, north of a vigorous storm track off the south coast of Australia, subtropical high-pressure ridging brings an unusually very warm to hot regime through the next 2 weeks across most of Australia (Fig. 6).

Fig. 3-4: AIFS 1-7-day and 8-14-day precipitation anomaly forecasts across the U.S. AG Belt.

Fig. 5-6: ECM projects a frost risk to southern Brazil coffee areas next Monday morning while the 15-day forecast across Australia is unusually hot.