Comparing NOAA and CIC Q4/2022 Climate Forecasts

Discussion: NOAA issued updated long-lead temperature and precipitation probability outlooks earlier today while new constructed analog (CA) forecasts were issued by Climate Impact Company (CIC). Comparing the October forecasts yield some important differences. The NOAA outlook is broadly warmer than normal (Fig. 1) while CIC is cool in the Northwest (Fig. 2). Differences appear in the precipitation outlook as NOAA favors dry risk for the Southwest and Central U.S. (Fig. 3) while CIC is wetter than normal across the northern half of the U.S. (Fig. 4). Persistence (of the current pattern) suggests a consensus between the two outlooks is likely most correct…not quite as wet and cool as indicated by CIA while NOAA may be too warm Interior West and not wet enough in the North.

In the Q4/2022 outlook, NOAA and CIC are agreeable on the temperature outlook which is broadly warmer than normal across most of the U.S. (Fig. 5-6). The precipitation outlook is agreeable on dryness across the South U.S. (Fig. 7-8). However, CIC is drier on each coast and wetter in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Favoring the wetter Northern U.S. forecast issued by CIC is recommended. In this zone NOAA indicates “equal chances” of above, below or normal precipitation.

The NOAA Q4/2022 U.S. drought outlook indicates expansion of drought in the Mid-south U.S. plus Texas (Fig. 9). Erosion of drought is expected in the Northwest and Northeast States.

Fig. 1-2: NOAA/CPC long-lead temperature probability forecast for October 2022 compared with the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast.

Fig. 3-4: NOAA/CPC long-lead precipitation probability forecast for October 2022 compared with the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast.

Fig. 5-6: NOAA/CPC long-lead temperature probability forecast for OCT/NOV/DEC 2022 compared with the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast.

Fig. 7-8: NOAA/CPC long-lead precipitation probability forecast for OCT/NOV/DEC 2022 compared with the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast.

Fig. 9: The updated U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.