Starting to look more favorable
Fig. 1: Satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.
Discussion: We now have 3 tropical waves in the outer tropical North Atlantic basin. Each tropical wave is located over 80-81F water which is marginally supportive for development. The upper shear axis stretches across the southern Caribbean Sea and northwest of the tropical waves. However, the shear axis is not particularly strong. Meanwhile upper shear is very light across the northern Caribbean Sea and Bahamas (where surface water is generally warmer than normal). The jet stream has pushed a frontal system into the Southeast and off the East Coast ending the recent heat wave. Keeping an eye on the Gulf for a possible “hybrid” tropical system, similar to Barry is required. Models indicate some activity in the tropical North Atlantic is possible in the 6-10 day period.