Highlight: Hot and dry concerns increasing heading into July.
Charts of the day: Wow! Immense area of >100F risk!
Discussion: ECM ENS identifies more than half of the U.S. at risk of >100F during the medium-range.
Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 22-26, 2022
Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 27-July 1, 2022
Discussion: The torrid heat remains in the forecast. ECM ENS remains the model of choice. However, GFS is also trending hotter. The influence of widening dry soils is helping to keep the anomalous heat widespread east of the Continental Divide.
ECM ENS %Normal Precipitation forecast for the Medium-range
Discussion: ECM ENS continues to stress dryness except in the Southwest U.S. in the 6-10-day period. Dryness continues in the 11-15-day period although the East Coast to northeast Gulf of Mexico are trending wetter.
Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid July 2-6, 2022
Discussion: ECM ENS maintains hot and dry weather!