Over Half of the U.S. at Risk of >100F

Rapidly Rising Solar Index is Ahead of Original Forecast
06/12/2022, 1:53 pm EDT
Increasing Rainfall Shortages Across U.S.
06/20/2022, 5:28 pm EDT
Show all

Highlight: Hot and dry concerns increasing heading into July.

Charts of the day: Wow! Immense area of >100F risk!

Discussion: ECM ENS identifies more than half of the U.S. at risk of >100F during the medium-range.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid June 22-26, 2022 

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid June 27-July 1, 2022

Discussion: The torrid heat remains in the forecast. ECM ENS remains the model of choice. However, GFS is also trending hotter. The influence of widening dry soils is helping to keep the anomalous heat widespread east of the Continental Divide.

ECM ENS %Normal Precipitation forecast for the Medium-range

Discussion: ECM ENS continues to stress dryness except in the Southwest U.S. in the 6-10-day period. Dryness continues in the 11-15-day period although the East Coast to northeast Gulf of Mexico are trending wetter.

Extended-range 16-20 Day Forecast Valid July 2-6, 2022

Discussion: ECM ENS maintains hot and dry weather!