Radar Projection Indicates Most Intense Squall Line Time in Texas is 6PM Today

Midday U.S. Energy Report: Tornado outbreak for TX/AR later today/tonight.

Learning Point: We’re entering the spring-time ENSO prediction barrier traditionally present for ENSO phase forecasts during MAR/APR/MAY when ENSO forecasts have their lowest skill. Many dynamic models forecast the demise of La Nina over the next 1-3 months with a following El Nino onset for mid-year and a stronger El Nino later in 2023. Caution is recommended during springtime assigning great confidence to any ENSO forecast. Last year at this time, El Nino was forecast although not as mightily as this year. Last year’s El Nino forecast failed as La Nina returned. So, the jury is out on El Nino 2023 ahead.

Discussion: A dangerous set-up for tornadoes and extreme rain is ahead this afternoon/overnight for Texas to Arkansas. The strongest radar echoes based on the HRRR model forecast is at 6PM CST when rapidly developing severe weather stretches from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma (Fig. 1). The squall line shifts east around midnight, losing only slight intensity, while excessive rainfall is causing widespread flooding in Arkansas (Fig. 2).

Fig. 1-2: HRRR projects the late day and overnight severe weather squall line across East Texas to Arkansas and Louisiana.

The 12Z GFS maintains a major snowfall across New York/New England for Saturday. Thematic of the medium-range forecast at midday is cooler Southeast and warmer across the western half of the nation in the 6-10-day/11-15-day forecast (Fig. 3-4). The GFS clearly believes the colder ensemble forecasts are too cold. Most notable at midday, the lowering of HDD projected for Mar. 10-16 although still colder than normal (Table 1).

Fig. 3-4: 12Z GFS 6-10-day/11-15-day temperature anomaly forecasts.

Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.