Fig. 1: Last week’s rainfall observations across Australia.
Discussion: The summer of 2022-23 wet monsoon across Northern Australia remains impressive. Many areas observed excessive rainfall last week including much of the north and northeast portion of the continent (Fig. 1). Patchy moderate rains were observed on the northwest and east coast. Of concern is the 10-day outlook which unloads excessive rainfall across a large swath of Queensland (Fig. 2). A tropical low-pressure area on the North Coast drifts slowly east-southeastward this week consolidating heavy rains across Northern Australia southeastward across Queensland. The GFS indicates several in. of rain with high spots >10 in. in the 10-day forecast, most occurring this week. A major flooding episode is likely.
Fig. 2: GFS 10-day rainfall forecast across Australia indicates excessive amount across Queensland.