U.S. Forecast Trends Wetter/Stormier Into Early Next Week

Preliminary U.S. Population Weight CDD Anomaly Forecast For Months of Warm Season in 2022
03/15/2022, 1:48 pm EDT
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Fig. 1: NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast.

High impact weather discussion: The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates potential for excessive amount centered on the Mid-South U.S. (Fig. 1). A low-pressure system develops on the TX/OK state line today and ignites a severe weather threat late today/tonight in Oklahoma to Louisiana (Fig. 2). Tomorrow, the storm system travels northeastward to Illinois by late day triggering more severe weather in the southwest Ohio Valley and continuing in the Gulf States (Fig. 3). Tornado risk is present near the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow. By Saturday, the storm shifts into the East bringing a rainy day including severe storms on the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast U.S. coast (Fig. 4). Another storm emerges early next week and causes heavy rains and severe thunderstorms to return to Texas and Louisiana (Fig. 5-6).

Fig. 2-4: NOAA/SPC severe weather outlooks for today through Saturday.

Fig. 5-6: NOAA/SPC severe weather outlooks for next Monday and Tuesday.

U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast discussion: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trends less warm for next week and colder for March 25-31 (Fig. 7).

Fig. 7: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast through late March using all models, their consensus and comparison with 24 hours ago and normal.