North Atlantic Basin August 2021 MUCH Cooler Than 1 Year Ago

Southern Canada Drought To Continue
08/01/2021, 7:39 pm EDT
Southwest Is Best, Midwest Worst Day 11-15 Temperature Forecast Skill Scores
08/05/2021, 8:12 am EDT
Show all

In August 2020 the North Atlantic basin was widespread warmer than normal foreshowing the most active tropical cyclone season on record ahead. However, this year the North Atlantic basin is much cooler!

Discussion: The North Atlantic SSTA pattern is VERY marginal warm right now (Fig. 1). The basin average is +0.27 which barely represents a marginal warm Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (+AMO). Keep in mind, the AMO regime has been in a robust warm phase much of the past 20 years during August. The 30-day change indicates the Gulf of Mexico is warming rapidly and becomes an area of concern for possible tropical cyclone activity (or intensification) later this month (Fig. 2). The previously warm zone off the coast of the Northeast is cooling rapidly! Last year at this time, the North Atlantic was super warm ahead of a record tropical cyclone year (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1: The North Atlantic basin SSTA in early August 2021.

Fig. 2: The North Atlantic basin SSTA 30-day change.

Fig. 3: The North Atlantic SSTA pattern one year ago.