Sudden Emergence of -NAO Pattern

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A strong negative North Atlantic oscillation climate pattern has emerged and may last much of the remainder of meteorological spring. Implications include more wet weather for the U.S. and a general cool thermal regime and potentially prohibitive rains in Eastern Europe/Western Russia.

A look at sudden –NAO and where the trough/ridge areas are located.

Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC forecasts the strongest –NAO of 2019 shaping the late spring pattern in North America and Europe/Russia.

Discussion: There are climate patterns of HIGH interest to the markets. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is an example. Suddenly, -NAO has evolved and will persist the next 2 weeks (Fig. 1). The induced upper air pattern throughout the northern hemisphere results are important to markets (Fig. 2). First, the U.S. goes mostly cool and stays wet (Fig. 3) and hopes of dry/warm weather to ease Central U.S. flooding and warm chilly soil moisture temperatures is not there.

Second, Europe goes wet (Fig. 4). Increasing drought concerns biased toward Southern Europe based on 2019 precipitation patterns (so far) reverses. A cool/wet upper trough inspired by the –NAO pattern has developed. The wet pattern extends to Western Russia.

Third, while –NAO inspires a wet/cool trough to key U.S., Europe and Western Russia a compensating force causing amplified upper high pressure ridge areas promoting dryness (Fig. 5) and warmth are generated over Western Canada and West-central Russia. As the northern hemisphere warm season begins (as of May 1) where stagnant upper ridge areas evolve become zones of concern for summertime drought. The early look at that potential reveals the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada and West-central Russia just east of Moscow south into eastern Black Sea region.

Fig. 2: The GFS ENS 15-day 500 MB anomaly forecast for the northern hemisphere identifying the prevailing climate pattern for late spring.

Fig. 3: The GFS ENS percent of normal precipitation forecast for the next 15 days offers mostly wetter than normal conditions.

Fig. 4: The GFS ENS percent of normal precipitation forecast for the next 15 days across Europe indicates potentially excessive amount.

Fig. 5: The GFS ENS percent of normal precipitation forecast for the next 15 days across Russia southern spring wheat areas is dry.