Global Soil Moisture And 3-Month Trend

La Nina-like South America SSTA
07/08/2019, 4:24 am EDT
Dynamic Models Forecasting Emerging La Nina for AUG/SEP/OCT
07/14/2019, 6:20 pm EDT
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Discussion: During the past 3 months the number of large regions of soil moisture change across the globe favored drier conditions (18) versus wetter adjustments (11). Currently, the most profound drought areas stretch across Canada which is mostly unchanged during the past 3 months except drier into Northwest Territories, northern and western Europe which expanded east into Western Russia, a strengthening intense dry region in northeast Russia and ongoing drought which gained intensity since March in southwestern Africa and much of Australia. Central Brazil drought is stronger. Dryness is strong and intensified in Kazakhstan. Possibly the strongest dry change during the past 3 months was in Southeast Asia.

The drier changes in parts of Alaska and western Canada is due to a persistent stronger than normal upper level ridge associated with emergence of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. The upper ridge extends northwestward and is also the cause of a drier pattern in northeast Russia. The expanding European dryness into Western Russia is due to the strongest anomalous upper ridge of APR/MAY/JUN across the northern hemisphere. A weak El Nino climate accounts for the Southeast Asia dry trend while an emerging positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is associated with drier trends in Western Australia and southeast portions. Anomalous subtropical ridging off the southwest coast of Africa maintains the drought in that region.

Wetter conditions were observed in the Central Great Plains and interior western U.S. contributed to by flooding rivers and runoff from snow melt. Northern Argentina also trended wetter during quarter 2 of 2019. A persistent upper trough visiting southeastern Europe caused wetter soil moisture change in that region. The positive phase Indian Ocean Dipole contributed to wetter weather over west/northwest India. In a bit of a surprise, given weak El Nino presence, western Indonesia trended wetter. While crop areas in northeast China observed developing drought in recent months a much wetter trend was notable in southeastern Russia to parts of Japan. Very wet conditions in North-central Russia intensified due to a persistent upper trough during the past several months.