ENSO Neutral; Watching Mid-Pacific Kelvin Wave
03/13/2023, 12:11 pm EDTOceanic La Nina Ends; Atmospheric La Nina Continues
03/14/2023, 12:44 pm EDT
Fig: 1: The HRRR model forecasts a band of 80-85 mph wind gusts at 10 meters into the northeast coast of Massachusetts at 4PM today.
Discussion: Interaction of today’s Northeast U.S. storm with the deep tropics due to the presence of a transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) which causes unusually low pressure (975-980 MB) will cause a high wind event later today as the storm backs westward toward the coast while peaking in strength. The HRRR model indicates a streak of 80-85 mph wind gusts at 10 meters near the New Hampshire/Northern Massachusetts coast at 4PM. The high wind band works southwestward to the western Boston suburbs into early evening. This zone is where damaging wind and power outages is most likely for this storm late this afternoon and into early evening.
Fig: 2: Today’s storm minimum pressure collapses into the 975-980 MB range only possible due to the interaction of this storm with the tropics.