Subtropical Ridge Split: Wetter Medium-range Forecasts for Central Brazil
11/14/2023, 5:14 am EST
Comparing NOAA and Climate Impact Company U.S. Winter 2023-24 Outlook
11/16/2023, 10:44 am EST
Charts of the day: Current soil moisture anomalies and past 7 days rainfall.
Discussion: Soil moisture trend clearly identifies drought concern in Eastern Australia plus the southwest and south coastal areas. Central Australia observed a wetter trend into mid-November. Last week, moderate to heavy rains were observed primarily in northern and eastern sections.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 21-27, 2023: Heavy rains East.
Discussion: The outlook is similar as heavy rain remains indicated on the East Coast. An upper trough drops into East-central Australia downstream from a semi-permanent upper ridge southwest of the continent.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid November 28-December 4, 2023: Wet weather forecast is widespread.
Discussion: The upper trough causing rain across eastern continent lingers and may intensify.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid December 5-11, 2023: Rainfall lingers East/Southeast.
Discussion: Wet weather lingers across Eastern Australia, a very unlike El Nino climate pattern continues into early meteorological summer.