Charts of the day: September rainfall and soil moisture.
Discussion: Negative Indian Ocean Dipole typically causes a wetter than normal pattern across western and southern Australia. La Nina is well-correlated to wetter than normal across eastern Australia. The -IOD peak is occurring now and the speedy shift into that peak intensity helped inspire a wet September 2022 climate across Australia. Meanwhile, the multivariate ENSO index remained at a robust La Nina-like -1.8 during AUG/SEP 2022 supporting more (excessive) rain in eastern Australia during September. Consequently, Australia Bureau of Meteorology identifies widespread wet soil conditions across most of Australia. Although parts of the South Coast of Australia and Tasmania are encountering drought, Australia is the only continent without major drought concerns entering Q4/2022.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid October 17-23, 2022: Wet/cool upper trough in the East.
Discussion: Upper trough drops anchor over Eastern Australia causing cool and wet conditions to persist. Wet weather is also likely in the northwest.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid October 24-30, 2022: Wet pattern continues.
Discussion: The wet/cool upper trough elongates during late October sustaining the unsettled weather pattern across most of Australia.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid October 31-November 6, 2022: Locked-in cool/wet pattern into late spring.
Discussion: Unable to shake the persistent upper-level cool trough heading into early November.