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Fig. 1-2: NOAA/WPC rainfall forecasts for TUE/WED/THU and early next week.

Discussion: A vigorous cold front shifts across the Midwest tomorrow morning and eastward to the Appalachian Mountains by tomorrow night and then slowly across the East Coast States on Thursday. Excessive rainfall associated with the cold front is possible in the northeast Gulf States tomorrow and throughout the Northeast Corridor on Thursday (Fig. 1). The next organized rainfall event arrives early next week in the Southwest U.S. and extending to Texas (Fig. 2).

The mid-to-late October forecasts maintain a similar theme as defined by U.S. population weight HDD projections (Fig. 3). Next week remains chilly as above normal heating demand is inspired by Ohio Valley cold. However, the warmer trend initiated yesterday for Oct. 21-27 continues as the HDD trend lowers again.

Fig. 3: All operational forecast models, their population weight HDD forecast and consensus compared with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year climatology.