North/East Australia Excessive Rainfall!

Fig. 1-4: Rainfall from the past week across Australia and current satellite view plus the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis from NOAA and the ECM ENS 10-day rainfall amount forecast.

Discussion: During the past week widening heavy rainfall has been observed across much of North, Central, and East Australia (Fig. 1). The heavy rain is inspired in-part by the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation shifting into the waters just north of Australia (Fig. 2). NOAA claims dry soil moisture conditions across North-central to South Coastal Australia in their most recent daily analysis (Fig. 3). However, given the observed and forecast excessive wet weather, dry soils likely dissipate. While 11-15-day forecasts are disagreeable on whether the heavy rain pattern fades, the 10-day forecasts are confident. The ECM ENS indicates up to 12 inches of rain for Southwest Queensland in their latest 10-day outlook (Fig. 4).