Expanding Europe Heatwave

Fig. 1-3: Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis across Europe and the 15-day temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast from AIFS. 

Discussion: The southeast quadrant of Europe to Southwest Russia has averaged 3-6C warmer than normal during the past week with attendant widespread dryness. The anomalous warmth and dry pattern is intensifying drought in this region and causing dry soil conditions to expand northward (Fig. 1). The 15-day outlook amplifies the attendant high-pressure ridge, and the anomalous warmth expands westward across Europe and northward to Scandinavia and Northwest Russia (Fig. 2). Much of the very warm zone has no rain through the next 2 weeks (Fig. 3). Under-cutting the ridge pattern are two cutoff low-pressure systems unloading heavy rain on France (and vicinity) and the southwest Black Sea region.