A Warm Autumn for Canada

Dorian Returns to Category 3 Major Hurricane Status
09/05/2019, 9:23 am EST
Northeast Russia, South Africa and Australian drought is strongest. Brazil turning drier.
09/10/2019, 7:47 am EST
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Canadian Warmth and Australian Drought

Fig. 1-2: The Canadian Meteorological Center forecasts warmer and wetter than normal climate for autumn 2019.

Discussion: Autumn 2019 looks warm across Canada according to the latest 90-day outlook from the Canadian Meteorological Center (Fig. 1). The catalyst to the warm forecast is the exceptionally warm ocean surface surrounding North America. The precipitation outlook is also wetter than normal (Fig. 2) for most of the nation as warm SSTA supply increased available moisture for passing storm systems. While early season chill is unlikely implying most of the wet weather forecast is indeed rainfall, November could be snowier as seasonality leads to cold enough temperatures to push for snowfall (which could be followed by a cold December).

Meanwhile Australia is immersed in drought (Fig. 3). The August 2019 soil moisture analysis by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reveals harsh drought conditions for much of the continent including most crop areas. The culprit is not ENSO but the amplified positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. The +IOD pattern is forecast to continue through 2019 and Australia will enter summer 2019-20 with widespread drought and amplified excessive heat concern.

Fig. 3: August 2019 soil moisture anomaly analysis across Australia.