Australia Dry/Hot Pattern Ahead

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Fig. 1-3: GFS ENS 15-day forecast of temperature anomalies and percent normal rainfall across Australia with current soil moisture anomaly conditions.

Discussion: Late summer important heat and dryness is appearing in 15-day outlooks by all forecast models. The hot/dry risk is related to the subsidence phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). The convective phase is to the north across Indonesia and into the Eastern Indian Ocean. The GFS ENS indicates the hottest anomalies are across the northwest continent (Fig. 1) while the rainfall forecast is dry for most of the continent over the next 2 weeks (Fig. 2). Soil moisture anomalies are currently trending drier across west and north portions of the continent (Fig. 3).