Wide Variation in ENSO Forecasts for Later 2025 Continue

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June 1 Arrives; Monitoring for Extreme Heat Begins
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Upper Ocean Heat North Atlantic Tropics on June 1st
06/03/2025, 9:03 am EDT
A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.
June 1 Arrives; Monitoring for Extreme Heat Begins
06/01/2025, 9:38 am EDT
A graph of the temperature of the north atlantic tropics AI-generated content may be incorrect.
Upper Ocean Heat North Atlantic Tropics on June 1st
06/03/2025, 9:03 am EDT
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Climate Impact Company Weekly ENSO Climate Diagnostics

Issued: Monday June 2, 2025

Highlight: Neutral ENSO continues; Warming in the subsurface and off the northwest coast of South America.

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Fig. 1: The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast reveals a wide range of solutions for later this year!

Discussion: ENSO remains in neutral phase. The Nino34 SSTA remains close to exactly normal (Fig. 1) although waters off the northwest coast of South America (Nino12) are warming again. The subsurface has warmed slightly during May and is now marginally warm across the entire equatorial Pacific. The southern oscillation index (SOI) was in the strong positive phase to end May shifting to neutral phase the past 2 days. The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to reveal a wide array of possible ENSO conditions for later this year. The latest 8 members of the ensemble forecast indicates a range of neutral ENSO to strong La Nina by early meteorological autumn (Fig. 2).

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Fig. 2: The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast reveals a wide range of solutions for later this year!