Updating The North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Climatology According to ENSO
03/29/2023, 2:31 pm EDTCool Northeast Pacific/Warm Gulf of Mexico SSTA = Powerful Severe Weather Events
04/02/2023, 12:20 pm EDT
Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS latest weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.
Discussion: A major storm reaching Iowa by early this afternoon spawns almost coast-to-coast hazards including a blizzard in South Dakota to Minnesota (Fig. 1), severe thunderstorms featuring a tornado risk in Iowa and eastern Arkansas (Fig. 2), and widespread damaging wind gusts from the southwest Great Plains to the Appalachian States. High wind and strong to severe thunderstorms roll through the East on Saturday. High wind accelerates D3/D4 drought conditions for Kansas to Texas. More severe weather regenerates in the East-central U.S. next Tuesday (Fig. 3). Snowstorms continue to pile snow across the North-central U.S. with today’s event (Fig. 4) and another heavy snowfall forecast for TUE/WED next week (Fig. 5). The latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for late heating season indicates below normal demand for the next week followed by a colder change for Apr. 7-13 biased by the GFS and then a warmer change to near normal Apr. 14-20 (Fig. 6).
Fig. 2-3: NOAA/SPC severe weather outlook for today and next Tuesday.
Fig. 4-5: GFS 48-hour snowfall forecasts for FRI/SAT and next TUE.
Fig. 6: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year climatology.