Record Warm Tropical South Atlantic Index/El Nino Inspired Hot/Dry Summer Most of Brazil

Charts of the day: Record +TSA associated with hot/dry Brazil summer climate.

Discussion: The tropical South Atlantic continues to observe record warm ocean temperatures. The influence on summer climate of the anomalous warmth was significant. Strong difluence in the upper atmosphere across the warm water zone represents anomalous convection (thunderstorm activity). To compensate for the rising air motion, an area of subsidence (sinking motion) over South America was observed during meteorological summer. The sensible weather result was drier and hotter than normal climate across much of Brazil. Of course, El Nino also enhanced this climate anomaly.

Week-2 Valid March 17-23, 2024: Continued hot/dry Southwest/East-central Brazil.

Discussion: All forecast models indicate excessive heat across Paraguay and vicinity with attendant dryness. Just north and south of this subsidence zone, thunderstorms strike far Northeast Brazil and Uruguay and vicinity.

Week-3 Valid March 24-30, 2024: Chance of rain Eastern Brazil.

Discussion: There is potential for northwestward extension of ocean cold fronts to deliver wetter than normal conditions to East Brazil while away from the wet weather hot and dry conditions continue.

Week-4 Valid March 31-April 6, 2024: Wetter East Brazil trend.

Discussion: All models forecast an upper trough near East Brazil favoring a wetter regime.